Market watches Russia’s wheat export potential

A big debate is once again brewing about how much wheat the world’s leading exporter will ship out in the upcoming crop year.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is forecasting Russia will produce 83 million tonnes of the crop and export 45 million tonnes.

SovEcon is forecasting 81 million tonnes of production and 39.7 million tonnes of exports.

If the USDA is right about global demand but is overestimating Russia’s exports by about five million tonnes, that would have big ramifications for the world wheat market.

“It means that the market will need to find those five million tonnes elsewhere, potentially in the U.S., which sits on relatively large stocks,” SovEcon analyst Andrey Sizov said in an email.

That would boost U.S. wheat prices, which are directly linked to Canadian prices.

Neil Townsend, chief analyst for GrainFox, said most of the people he has spoken with on the ground in Europe would side with the SovEcon estimate, and so is the trade.

“The market participants are not agreeing with the USDA,” he said.

“The general consensus I see about USDA numbers for the Black Sea is they just have lacked a little nuance.”

Townsend said the USDA’s 2025-26 export number seems high given that Russia is going to end the current crop year with relatively tight supplies following a decent 2024-25 export program.