Tariffs and Trade – Now What?
By Cam Dahl, General Manager, Manitoba Pork Council
“This too shall pass” is a Persian proverb used to encourage hope when times are difficult. Does this saying apply to the current U.S. President’s confrontational approach to allies and friends? Does it apply to the U.S. Administration’s isolationist trade policies and tariffs? It probably does apply in the long-term, but today, hope is in short supply for many Manitoba farmers.
Manitoba exports about $9.3 billion worth of agriculture and food products every year. This represents 13 percent of the province’s annual gross domestic product. Almost half, 46 percent in 2024, of these exports were shipped into the U.S.
On March 4th, President Trump carried through on his threats to put tariffs of 25 percent on almost all Canadian exports (outside of oil and gas). This means that half of our agriculture and food exports became 25 percent more expensive with no return to farmers or processors. The negative impact of this will reverberate throughout every community in Manitoba, large and small.
Tariffs do not come as a surprise. The President talked about tariffs throughout his election campaign. The current U.S. Administration views trade surpluses as a foreign subsidy provided by U.S. taxpayers. The President’s closest economic advisors are advocates for tariffs for both revenue generation as well as a tool to drive manufacturing to the U.S. Given these views, it is likely that these tariffs will be with us for some time.
Many are predicting that a recession is coming. Looking at the pork sector as an example, it is not hard to see why these predictions are being made. The sector supports 22,000 jobs in Manitoba, in almost every part of the province. The industry contributes $2.3 billion to the provincial GDP. Our largest export market is now significantly disrupted, putting those jobs and economic contribution at risk. Pork is not alone. A recent survey by the Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce found that over 60 percent of businesses will be negatively impacted, with many seeing impacts already.
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