Lower Corn Prices, Record Supply Forecast Show Need for Trade, Ethanol Markets

May 13, 2019

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U.S. corn farmers are forecast to reach record total corn supplies according to U.S. Department of Agriculture reports released today. Higher forecasted production outpacing forecasted demand growth resulted in lower average farm price projection of $3.30 per bushel for the 2019/20 market year.
This report, the first forecasting overall U.S. corn supply and demand for the next marketing year, projected higher production than the year prior, with a projected increase of 3.7 million planted acres. The yield, projected to 176 bushels per acre, is based on a weather-adjust trend assuming that both planting progress and summer weather remain normal in comparison with that seen over the prior thirty years. If realized, it would be the third-highest yield on record. Beginning stocks are projected lower than the prior year, yet the total corn supply is forecast to set a new record high at 17.2 billion bushels.
Total corn use is projected to rise slightly in 2019/20, despite lower projected exports. Growth in the projected demand for corn for use in ethanol, notably, is forecast higher due to overall motor gasoline consumption despite lower inclusion rates.
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