Just Minor Changes in US Soybean Balance Sheets

The USDA made just minor adjustments this month in its old- and new-crop US soybean outlooks. 

Updated supply-demand estimates released Friday lowered the 2023-24 soybean ending stocks estimate by 5 million bu from last month to 345 million, while new-crop stocks dropped 20 million bu to 435 million. Both numbers fell below average pre-report trade estimates of 355 million and 449 million, respectively. 

The drop in the old-crop ending stocks estimate was due to a 5-million bu reduction in the import forecast to 20 million bu. 

Soybean futures were trading mixed this afternoon, anywhere between 1 cent/bu higher and 7 cents lower. 

On the new-crop side, the USDA lowered its US soybean production estimate by 15 million from July to 4.435 billion, based on the June acreage report which reduced both planted and harvested area from earlier expectations. Meanwhile, this year’s average expected US soybean yield was unchanged from July at 52 bu/acre, up from 50.6 bu in 2023. 

The decline in the 2024 production estimate, along with the smaller carryin from the old-crop marketing year, resulted in the drop in the 2024-25 ending stocks forecast. 

The USDA held its 2023-24 Brazil soybean production estimate steady from July at 153 million tonnes, but the Argentina crop was reduced 500,000 tonnes from last month to 49.5 million. In other notable 2023-24 changes, China’s soybean imports were revised up 3 million tonnes this month to 108 million on larger-than-anticipated arrivals expected in the fourth quarter of the marketing year. 

At 111.25 million tonnes, world soybean ending stocks for 2023-24 are little changed from 111.07 million in June. 

Global soybean ending stocks for 2024-25 are down 100,000 tonnes this month to 127.8 million on lower stocks for Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Russia, the EU, and the US, mostly offset by higher stocks for China 

The US season-average soybean price for 2024-25 is forecast at $11.10/bu for July, down 10 cents from last month. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged, at $330/short ton and 42 cents/lb, respectively.