July 31 Barley, Oat Stocks Touch New Lows

After touching a new low a year earlier, Canadian barley stockpiles as of the end of this past July fell even further. 

National barley stocks as of July 31, 2022 (ending stocks for the 2021-22 crop year) were estimated at 504,000 tonnes in a Statistics Canada grain stocks report Wednesday. That is down more than 29% from the previous year’s 711,000 tonnes and represents the tightest on record going back to 1980. In its August supply-demand update, Agriculture Canada forecast 2021-22 barley ending stocks at 470,000 tonnes. 

Meanwhile, Canadian oat stocks as of July 31 were pegged at 317,500 tonnes, a drop of 51.6% on the year and also the lowest on record. 

In the wake of last summer’s Prairie drought which severely reduced production, the decrease in July 31 barley stocks was due to lower on-farm stocks, which fell 48.3% to 285 000 tonnes, offsetting higher commercial stocks (+37.1% to 219 100 tonnes). 

Deliveries of barley off-farm decreased 22.6% to 4 million tonnes in 2021-22, while exports were down 39.1% year over year to 2.6 million tonnes. Barley used for feed fell 33.1% to 4.3 million tonnes, its lowest level on record, as short supply resulted in farmers switching to alternative feed sources. 

On-farm barley stocks in Alberta as of July 31 were estimated at 129,000 tonnes, down 57% on the year, while Saskatchewan on-farm stocks amounted to 53,000 tonnes, a fall of 63.9%. Manitoba on-farm barley stocks came in at 70,000 tonnes, down just 3,000 from a year earlier. 

For oats, on-farm supplies as of July 31 were down almost 58% to 146,800 tonnes and commercial stocks fell 44.6% to 170,700. Ag Canada in August forecast 2021-22 oat ending stocks at just 220,000 tonnes. 

Oat exports fell 22.5% to 2.3 million tonnes in 2021-22, as did oats used for animal feed (-45.6% to 636 600 tonnes), mostly because of lower supplies.