The International Grains Council has slashed its 2021-22 global soybean production estimate, citing dwindling yield potential in drought-hit South America.
In its latest monthly Grain Market Report on Thursday, the IGC put total estimated global soy production at 353 million tonnes, down 15 million from the agency’s January forecast and now 4% below the previous year. The biggest cuts were to Brazil – down 10.5 million tonnes from January to 126.5 million, while estimated Argentina output was dropped 2.5 million to 41.5 million.
The IGC’s estimates are now more in line with more recent private estimates, particularly for Brazil. On the other hand, the USDA’s February estimates put Brazil production at 134 million tonnes and Argentina at 45 million.
With the downgrade in production, the IGC in turn reduced its 2021-22 global soybean consumption estimate to 363 million tonnes, down from 371 million in January and 367 million the previous year. If accurate, it would mark the first time projected annual soy consumption has declined in a decade. Trade is also forecast lower this month, down 6 million tonnes to an estimated 161 million – steady from a year earlier.