IGC Raises 2024-25 Soybean Production Estimate to New High

The International Grains Council has raised its 2024-25 world soybean production estimate to a new record high this month. 

In its monthly Grain Market Report on Thursday, the IGC pegged global soy output at 421 million tonnes, up 2 million from the agency’s September estimate and 7% above the previous year’s 395 million. 

The increase in the global production number reflects larger crops in South America, including Brazil. The 2024-25 Brazilian crop is now seen at 152.5 million tonnes, up from 151 million last month, although still below the 2023-24 crop of 158 million. The Paraguay crop was also revised higher, up 300,000 tonnes from September to 10.5 million and above 10.2 million a year earlier. Argentina’s crop was left steady at 51.5 million, still up sharply from the previous year’s drought-hit harvest of just 25 million. 

World soybean ending stocks are higher this month as well, up 4 million tonnes to 86 million – a major 15-million tonne increase from 2023-24. 

As for wheat and corn, the IGC left its 2024-25 world production estimates steady from last month but ending stocks have been revised lower and higher, respectively. 

Global wheat output holds at 798 million tonnes – up 3 million from a year ago – as reductions for Australia and Argentina are offset by a larger crop in Kazakhstan. But amid other changes in trade and expected consumption, world wheat ending stocks are down 1 million tonnes from last month to 266 million, 6 million below the previous year.  

Corn production, at 1.224 billion tonnes, is also unchanged from September but down from 1.229 billion in 2023-24. Projected corn ending stocks, at 279 million tonnes, are up 3 million from last month. That is still well down 286 million a year earlier and the lowest since at least 2021-22. 

World total grains (wheat and coarse grains) ending stocks for 2024-25 are estimated at 584 million tonnes this month, up 3 million from September but still down 12 million on the year.