The International Grains Council has trimmed its 2021-22 world grains ending stocks estimate, even as it revised expected production higher.
In its latest monthly Grain Market Report, the IGC dropped its ending stocks estimate to 595 million tonnes, down 15 million from the agency’s April estimate. If accurate, it would the lowest ending stocks level for world grains (wheat and coarse grains) in seven years and the fifth straight year of decline. Compared to the most recent high of 661.8 million in 2016-17, world grains ending stocks for 2021-22 are expected to be down almost 67 million tonnes or about 10%.
On the other hand, the IGC raised its 2021-22 global production estimate to 2.292 billion tonnes, up from 2.287 billion last month and 2.22 billion for the previous year.
In its accompanying commentary, the IGC partially blamed increased animal feeding for this month’s decline in the ending stocks estimate, with 2021-22 total expected consumption rising 10 million tonnes from April to 2.297 billion tonnes. (Total world grains consumption for 2020-21 is estimated by the IGC at 2.237 billion tonnes).
World wheat ending stocks for 2021-22 are seen by the IGC at 288 million tonnes, down from 298 million last month but still up from 286 million for the previous year. The new-crop wheat production estimate was left steady from last month at 790 million tonnes, up from 774 million in 2020-21.
Estimated corn ending stocks for 2021-22 are forecast at 261 million tonnes this month, down 3 million from April and down from 267 million the previous year. World corn production is seen at 1.194 billion tonnes this month, versus 1.192 billion in April and 1.134 billion in 2020-21.
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