Heavier New-Crop Outlook for Peas, Lentils

Agriculture Canada has raised its 2024-25 dry pea and lentil ending stocks estimate from last month, with lentils seeing a particularly sharp increase. 

The government’s monthly supply-demand update on Monday estimated new-crop lentil ending stocks at 450,000 tonnes, way up from 190,000 in June and a nine-fold increase from the forecasted 2023-24 stocks of just 50,000. If accurate, it would be the heaviest lentil ending stocks level since 2018-19 at 856,000 tonnes. 

Meanwhile, pea ending stocks were revised up 200,000 tonnes from last month to 440,000, up from 225,000 in 2023-24 but still below the 2022-23 level of 498,000. 

The heavier lentil ending stocks estimate reflects a larger 2024 production estimate, with Ag Canada now projecting the crop at 2.5 million tonnes, up from 2.13 million last month and potentially the largest since the 2020 crop of 2.86 million. 

Based on Statistics Canada’s June acreage report, Ag Canada raised its lentil harvested area estimate to 4.13 million acres from 3.76 million last month, with this year’s average expected yield bumped higher as well. 

To help offset some of the larger lentil supply, Ag Canada raised its export forecast by 100,000 tonnes from last month to 1.9 million tonnes, while expected domestic use was revised up 10,000 tonnes to 275,000. 

However, the 2024-25 lentil stocks-to-use ratio now sits at a hefty 21%, compared to 9% in June and only 3% last year. At $830, the average expected new-crop lentil price is steady from last month but well down from $1,010 in 2023-24. 

Pea production was raised 300,000 tonnes from last month to 3.3 million (compared to 2.6 million a year ago and 3.42 million in 2022-23) amid a slightly larger harvested area and a higher expected yield. 

Projected pea exports were steady from last month at 2.5 million tonnes, but domestic use was raised 100,000 tonnes to 615,000. 

The average expected pea price was unchanged from June as well, holding at $430, down from $465 for 2023-24.