HAMS Marketing Services Warns Retaliation on U.S. Pork Tariffs Could Pressure Canadian Hog Prices

Retaliatory tariffs targeting U.S. pork could have a direct impact on Canadian hog prices, according to Paul Marchand, Senior Risk Management Analyst with HAMS Marketing Services.

On August 7, the United States raised its general tariff on Canadian imports not covered under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) from 25% to 35%. Additional tariffs were also introduced on other U.S. trading partners.

Marchand explains that Canadian hog prices are tied to U.S. prices through a formula, meaning any loss in U.S. pork export markets due to retaliation would quickly put downward pressure on Canadian returns.

He points out that Mexico—currently the top buyer of U.S. pork—remains within the trade agreement, which has helped shield the industry so far. To date, retaliatory actions have been limited to threats.

Marchand warns that if key markets begin to see the U.S. as an unreliable supplier, they may seek pork from other countries, placing additional pressure on both U.S. and Canadian markets. He notes that Brazil has already surpassed the U.S. as the leading pork supplier to the Philippines, though the connection to tariffs remains uncertain.