Global Wheat Production, Stocks Heavier; US Estimates Steady

The 2025-26 supply-demand picture for US wheat didn’t change this month, but the global outlook is markedly heavier. 

With all other estimates left steady, the USDA’s December supply-demand update on Tuesday left projected 2025-26 US wheat ending stocks unchanged from November at 901 million bu, up from 851 million the previous year. 

Ahead of the report, traders and analysts were expecting a modest 7-million bu reduction in US wheat ending stocks from last month. Wheat futures were trading mixed this afternoon, with just small moves.  

Meanwhile, global wheat production for 2025-26 was raised nearly 9 million tonnes from last month to 837.81 million, now up more than 37 million from the previous year. 

Almost every major wheat producer saw an upward revision from last month, with Argentina output up 2 million tonnes to 24 million, Australia up 1 million to 37 million, Canada up almost 3 million to nearly 40 million, and the EU up to 144 million from 142.3 million. Russia production was revised higher as well, up 1.5 million tonnes to 87.5 million. 

Russia and EU wheat exports for 2025-26 were left steady from November at 44 million and 33 million tonnes, respectively, but Canada and Australia were both raised 1 million tonnes to 28 million and 27 million. Projected Argentina exports are up 500,000 tonnes from last month to 14.5 million. 

China’s wheat imports were steady from November at 6 million tonnes, compared to 4.17 million in 2024-25. 

At 274.87 million tonnes, world wheat ending stocks for 2025-26 are up 3.4 million this month, and well above 260.03 million in 2024-25.