The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cotton projections for 2015/16 indicate that world cotton stocks are expected to decrease 4 percent from last season’s record to 107 million bales. The global stock decline would be the first in 6 years; the recent dramatic stock buildup resulted from policies in China that supported domestic cotton prices above world prices (fig. 1).
With new policies in place to limit raw cotton imports in 2015/16, stocks in China are forecast to decrease 4 percent—the first reduction there in 5 seasons. However, China’s stocks remain at an extremely high 65.3 million bales, or nearly 2 years’ worth of cotton mill use. Meanwhile, stocks outside of China have seen relatively modest changes. As recently as 2010/11, India was the single largest stockholder, with 11.5 million bales. In 2015/16, stocks in India are projected to rise slightly to 13.5 million bales, or about 13 percent of global stocks, compared with China’s share of 61 percent. U.S. stocks contribute 3 percent of the total, while stocks in the rest of the world account for 23 percent.
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Source: USDA