Even with a potentially large 2022 U.S. wheat crop, the Farm Progress survey showed why wheat stocks could actually decline slightly through the next marketing year. The publication said it estimates 2022/23 U.S. wheat usage at just under 58 million metric tons (2.13 billion bushels) in part because of “higher export targets.” That would be the highest usage rate since 2016/17 and “consume all new production that comes online” in 2022 and, if realized, create the lowest stock-to-use percentage since 2013/14.
The planted area estimate of 94.3 million acres of corn and 87.6 million acres of soybeans from the survey would mean the combined total planted area with wheat would be the third largest combined acreage on record.
Where Will Those Acres Come From?
Ms. Holland suggested that farmers in the Plains have some flexibility to change their crop rotations compared to farmers in the Eastern U.S. Corn Belt. She added that cattle herd numbers are down which could allow a shift from forage crops. And double-cropping wheat after soybeans remains a profitable choice.
The writer goes on to describe reasons why these rather bullish estimates may be tempered. For wheat, as for corn and soybeans, the estimates from the survey assume optimal weather conditions. Too many U.S. wheat farmers know optimal conditions are rare. In fact, the threat of continued drought through the winter wheat planting season will have an impact on seeded area for 2022.
China’s Influence
The author also noted that China will continue its outsized influence on global wheat, corn and soy supply and demand. Export demand levels could grow if China’s livestock feed demand grows and that will affect U.S. grain production profitability.
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