It's an area getting more attention from lawmakers, researchers and industry professionals. The U.S. Department of Agriculture this week announced a $300 million investment to monitor agricultural emissions, including by creating a research network to monitor carbon in soil. And U.S. Sens. Tina Smith, D-Minn., and Todd Young, R-Ind., introduced a bill that Smith said would support the research needed to “properly credit soil carbon storage.”
The USDA announcement and the legislation are both aimed at the difficult question of how to quantify carbon stored in soil. It’s an obstacle to overcome if the young and booming soil carbon market is to avoid the scrutiny, and skepticism, directed at carbon credit markets.
“The science piece (of carbon credits) has really lagged behind, particularly when it comes to things like monitoring, reporting and verification,” said Cristel Zoebisch, deputy director of policy at climate organization Carbon180. “These are huge obstacles for not just soil carbon sequestration, but really any land-based carbon removal solution.”
Armstrong has been trying to help fix that problem. He runs a lab where researchers are investigating how farming management affects the amount of carbon in soil across different landscapes. He and others at Purdue have been studying soil samples that date back more than 40 years, comparing different types of tilling and cover crops to determine their long-term effects on carbon storage. It can take years of fieldwork, careful chemistry in the lab and lots of expensive equipment to puzzle that out.
He hopes his precise calculations will help farmers make decisions that allow them to receive worthwhile incentives for sequestering carbon while maintaining their existing profits.
But other academics worry that even if farmers do get paid for storing soil carbon, it won't solve a bigger problem: that carbon markets often don't work.
For offsets to be legitimate, they have to meet four criteria. They have to store carbon that would otherwise be emitted; they have to be verifiable in data; they have to be immediate (planting a tree that might grow up in 20 years doesn't cut it); and they have to be long-lasting, said John Sterman, a professor of management at Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Better quantifying soil carbon storage through research might make the offsets more verifiable, but it doesn't address other factors. For example, many farmers rent the land they work, and can't guarantee that carbon stored on their land will stay put in several decades if someone else is working the land.
Barbara Haya, director of the Berkeley Carbon Trading Project at University of California, Berkeley, has worked on research that she said shows the effects of carbon offset projects are commonly overestimated, sometimes vastly so.
“Carbon trading is a mechanism that has failed miserably over the last 20 years that we really need to be moving away from," Haya said.
U.S. Rep. Jared Huffman, D-Calif., last month introduced a bipartisan bill to support farmers in improving soil health, with incentives that don't necessarily involve the carbon market. He said farmers in his district have also described the benefits of regenerative practices, and that many would be interested in participating in carbon markets with “robust” accounting systems. But he added that those hoping for serious climate action shouldn't rely only on offsets.
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