Farm Economy Could Hinge on Corn Harvest

By Tim Alexander

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) is projecting that Illinois farmers will harvest an average of 198 bushels per acre (bpa) of corn in 2023, which is 16 bushels per acre lower than USDA’s final harvest estimate for 2022. If realized, the per-acre yield for corn in Illinois would be the lowest since 2020.

The loss of yield comes at a very bad time for farmers: Lower prices paid for corn, decreased export demand, higher interest rates and a large increase in the price of fertilizers for this year’s crop have many analysts concerned that farm profitability and income will take a nosedive, leaving some smaller producers in dire financial straits.

However, field canvassers with Bloomington-based agricultural cooperative Growmark are seeing a different outcome: Illinois farmers will harvest 213 bushels per acre this fall, according to data gleaned from 282 field location samples. This would put the 2023 state corn yield on par with the 214 bpa farmers harvested in 2022.

The impact of low corn yield on the rural economy can be significant, according to the USDA. In addition to increasing the number of farm bankruptcies, consumers can feel the effects via higher food prices resulting from higher demand for corn-based products, including animal feed used by the livestock industry. Coupled with other market factors placing downward pressure on 2023 U.S. corn prices, low yields can be a recipe for disaster for many farming operations. In this scenario, the amount of bushels per acre harvested by farmers takes on even greater importance.

Agronomists: kernel population will tell the story

To find out how much of a difference an extra 15 bpa of corn can have on a producer’s bottom line, we turned to Growmark field sales agronomist Tracy Heuerman for answers.

“The 2023 cropping season will probably have a little tighter margin for most farms due to the high input costs that went into this crop and lower grain prices. When you look at a difference of 10 or 15 bpa at even today’s crop prices for corn ($4.43 per bushel based on current delivery prices at press time, according to Danvers Farmers Elevator at press time), you’re talking about a $60, $70 or $80 difference per acre. That could potentially be the difference between breaking even or making money for a farm this year,” said Heuerman.

Field data collected by FS for their projections, including estimated yield and number of locations sampled, was uploaded to their FS Agronomy Yield Analyzer app. The tool clusters the map points, consolidated by a specific geographic area, to calculate estimated yield. The data is constantly changing as agronomists input new information.

What others are saying

In addition to USDA and Growmark's corn yield projections, Pro Farmer’s annual field tour found that Illinois farmers should harvest 190.71 bpa, based on delivery of 90,000 seeds per bushel. This compares with projections issued by the Danvers Farmers Elevator (DFE) using data gleaned from their August field tour of 125 corn plots in Woodford, Tazewell and McLean counties.

Also based on delivery of 90,000 seeds per bushel, DFE’s study determined that farmers would see a raw average yield of just 197.83 bpa. However, DFE’s estimate can be adjusted to just over 225 bpa assuming delivery of 79,000 seeds per acre, based on tour average test weight.