Experts Split on Whether China will Meet Soybean Purchase Pledge

By Ryan Hanrahan

With just one month remaining in 2025, commodity traders, ag economists and the market appear split on whether China will meet its pledge to buy at least 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of the year. Bloomberg’s Hallie Gu reported that “China is expected to step up US soybean purchases to meet a pledge to buy at least 12 million tons by the end of the year, according to multiple traders, underscoring a wider market hope that at least in agriculture a fragile trade truce can hold.”

“State-owned importers including Cofco will take more shipments in the coming weeks, said traders from commercial and state buyers, who asked not to be named as they are not authorized to speak with the media,” Gu reported. “Those volumes will help China fulfill commitments made in late October, they added, though the timing and scale of shipments remains uncertain.”

“After Chinese leader Xi Jinping met US counterpart Donald Trump in South Korea just over a month ago, Washington said Beijing had promised to book at least 12 million tons of soybeans this year,” Gu reported. “That would be followed by additional purchases of at least 25 million tons annually over the next three years, apparently resolving a major point of disagreement. China has not officially confirmed that target, but has moved to reduce tariffs on the crop and lifted import bans on three American exporters.”

“Unless there are political impediments, ‘there would be no reason for them not to at least have made that amount of sales. Whether it’s shipped or not, that’s another thing,’ said Wayne Gordon of UBS Group AG’s wealth management arm,” Gu reported. “The catch is that with only weeks left in the year, time is tight. According to Bloomberg calculations based on USDA data, Chinese buyers have booked roughly 3 million tons still far short of the target. To meet that goal, they would have to book the remaining volumes over less than a month, and an unpredictable buying pace has stoked concern that China may be hampered by bureaucratic and logistical hurdles, even if it did want to honor its apparent commitment.”