Economists Forecast Hog Prices Following December USDA Quarterly Report

By Jennifer Shike

Three economists shared their forecasted prices for the year ahead in the Dec. 23 announcement of the Dec. 1 USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report in a teleconference funded by the Pork Checkoff. 

Using the Carcass Price National Weighted Average, David Miller, an economist with Decision Innovation Solutions, quoted:

•   first quarter of 2022 at $83-86

•   second quarter of 2022 at $88-92

•   third quarter of 2022 at $88-92

•   fourth quarter of 2022 at $78-84

Ron Plain, University of Missouri Extension emeritus, used the Iowa-Minnesota Based Carcass Price Negotiated Sales to quote his prices. He forecast:

•   first quarter of 2022 at $69

•   second quarter of 2022 at $82

•   third quarter of 2022 at $83

•   fourth quarter of 2022 at $68

Bob Brown, an independent analyst, said he used the CME equivalent carcass basis. He forecast:

•   first quarter of 2022 at $82.50

•   second quarter of 2022 at $91

•   third quarter of 2022 at $87.50

•   fourth quarter of 2022 at $73