Durum Ending Stocks Tighter from November

Agriculture Canada has whittled down its 2024-25 durum ending stocks estimate from last month, although it remains up from a year earlier. 

Monthly government supply-demand estimates released Thursday showed durum ending stocks at 650,000 tonnes, down 150,000 from the November forecast but still well up from the previous year’s 407,000. 

The reduction reflects Statistics Canada’s Dec. 5 crop production report which put this year’s Canadian durum crop to 5.87 million tonnes, down from the federal agency’s previous estimate in September of just over 6 million. However, this year’s durum crop is still 44% larger than the 2023 harvest, 20% above average and the sixth largest on record.  

Ag Canada trimmed its domestic use estimate slightly to reflect this month’s downward revision in the durum crop, but left its export forecast unchanged from last month at 4.9 million tonnes, up from 3.558 million in 2023-24 but still below over 5 million in 2022-23. 

At $325/tonne, the average expected 2024-25 durum price was steady from last month but down $100 on the year. 

In other changes this month, Ag Canada revised its 2024-25 wheat (excl durum) export forecast up to 21.25 million tonnes from 20.8 million in November to offset a larger production estimate in the Dec. 5 StatsCan report (29.088 million tonnes versus 28.6 million in September). Total expected domestic use was also revised higher, helping to keep wheat (excl durum) ending stocks unchanged from last month at 3.8 million tonnes, down from 4.208 million in 2023-24 and 5.051 million in 2022-23. 

At 800,000 tonnes, estimated 2024-25 barley ending stocks were revised up 100,000 from last month but down from 1.152 million in 2023-24. 

The StatsCan crop production report raised 2024 Canadian barley production to 8.144 million tonnes from 7.6 million previously, but a portion of that increase was blunted by a higher export forecast, which was lifted to 2.89 million tonnes from 2.75 million in November. Projected domestic barley use was bumped higher as well, up to 5.705 million tonnes from 5.402 million last month. 

Oat ending stocks were left unchanged from last month at 400,000 tonnes, down slightly from 442,000 a year earlier, as higher export and domestic use forecasts offset an upward revision in production to 3.358 million tonnes from 3.017 million. 

The average expected barley price for 2024-25 was raised $5 from last month to $290/tonne, compared to $314 the previous year, while the oat price forecast was steady from November at $330/tonne, down from $354 in 2023-24.