Dry Pea Outlook Looser; Lentils Tighter

Agriculture Canada’s outlook for dry peas has loosened considerably from last month, but lentils have gotten a whole lot tighter. 

The federal department’s December supply-demand update, released Friday, raised projected 2023-24 dry pea ending stocks by more than two-fold from November to 570,000 tonnes. On the other hand, an already tight lentil ending stocks estimate was hacked by half from last month to just 50,000 tonnes. 

If accurate, pea ending stocks would be up from 498,000 tonnes a year earlier and the highest since the 2017-18 season at 648,000 tonnes. On the other hand, lentil stocks would be down from 147,000 in 2022-23 and would be the lowest since falling to just 38,000 tonnes in 2003-04. 

The dramatic change in the dry pea ending stocks estimate from November can be attributed to Statistics Canada’s crop production report earlier this month. That report raised the estimate of this year’s pea crop to just over 2.6 million tonnes from the federal agency’s previous forecast in September of 2.27 million. 

With the export forecast unchanged from last month at 1.9 million tonnes, and domestic use revised only marginally higher, at 676,000 tonnes, the bulk of the production increase went right to the bottom line to inflate ending stocks. 

Meanwhile, StatsCan’s lentil production estimate was relatively little changed in December, inching up to 1.67 million tonnes from 1.54 million. However, that increase was more than offset by a 200,000-tonne increase in this month’s lentil export forecast to 1.6 million, with expected domestic use trimmed to 263,000 tonnes from 284,000 in November. 

At $420/tonne, Ag Canada’s season average price forecast was steady from last month, while lentils were increased $10 to $990. 

In other changes this month, estimated dry bean ending stocks doubled from last month to 70,000 tonnes, as production increased to 339,000 tonnes from 277,000. Exports were revised 30,000 tonnes higher to 350,000 to mop up some of the extra supply. 

Chickpea and mustard stocks were both revised 5,000 tonnes higher from last month to 20,000 and 70,000 tonnes, respectively, versus 27,000 and 40,000 a year earlier. 

Canary stocks were trimmed 5,000 tonnes to 30,000, down from 59,000 a year ago, while sunflower stocks were bumped 15,000 tonnes higher to 175,000, commpared to 151,000 in 2022-23.