Drought to Threaten Prairie Yields: AccuWeather Forecast

Prairie crop yields are likely to be threatened as heat and dryness return to the southern Prairies this summer, according to an AccuWeather seasonal forecast.

Although recent precipitation – both rain and snow – has eased Prairie drought concerns for now, the AccuWeather forecast suggests the same pattern that will keep the US northern Plains hot and dry through the summer months will extend across the border into southern Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Meanwhile, most of the thunderstorms that do develop are likely to traverse the northern portion of the Prairies instead.

"Ongoing severe to extreme drought from southern Saskatchewan to southern Manitoba is likely to expand and get worse into the summer with the potential for low agricultural yields and added stress on livestock," senior meteorologist Brett Anderson said as part of the summer outlook.

He added that water-use restrictions and low river and stream levels will likely be issues through much of the summer.

The worsening drought conditions might also exacerbate the heat in the southern Prairies, leading to an abnormally high number of days above 30 degrees C, Anderson said. This would be significantly warmer than normal for cities such as Calgary, Edmonton and Regina, which typically have temperatures ranging from about 18 to 24 degrees C.

"With a dry ground, most of the sun's energy will go directly into heating the surface rather than evaporating water," Anderson said, adding he also expects an increased wildfire risk this summer.

As for Ontario, the AccuWeather forecast is pointing to generally wetter than normal conditions - a sharp contrast to overly dry weather this spring - along with mostly normal temperatures.

Warmer water off the coast of Atlantic Canada is expected to allow heat to build more quickly across the Maritimes, leaving Ontario as the battleground between warm, humid conditions in the east and the drier weather in Western Canada. That dynamic can lead to a higher number of days with showers and heavy to severe thunderstorms, Anderson said.