By Alfredo DiCostanzo and Connor Biehler
Fall of 2024 is officially here! The U.S. beef herd inventory was at 28.2 million cows as of January 2024. During the last peak of the cattle cycle in January of 2019, the U.S. beef herd inventory reached 31.6 million cows. That is a drop of 3.4 million cows (11% of the inventory) in five years!
Will the U.S. beef industry rebuild to the same inventory as 2019? Likely not!
Many factors will affect the size of the U.S. beef herd at the next peak. Some might consider that beef on dairy crosses will likely affect herd expansion. Our perspective on this is that, unless dairy cows are used to produce fullblood beef breed embryos, the effects of breeding dairy cows to beef sires on beef production are already absorbed by the industry.
We submit a few reasons for this:
Firstly, the U.S. dairy herd is static at 9 million cows; thus, the number of replacement heifers needed to maintain this inventory is set at somewhere between 3 and 4 million. This figure has not changed. What changed is the quality (muscling size and distribution) and quantity (greater dressing percentage) of beef derived from the non-replacement breeding of dairy cows. These effects are already built into beef production.
Secondly, as greater beef production results from future beef herd expansion, beef cattle prices will find new levels reflective of production. This will limit interest in using beef sires on dairy cows by dairy producers to the proportion of the herd not needed to breed for replacement purposes.
Also, because of production efficiency gained through genetics, selection pressure resulting from culling less productive cows during droughts, and technological advances, the U.S. beef cow herd will likely achieve a lower peak resulting from the next expansion.
Since 1975, each U.S. beef cow inventory peak has diminished from 45.7 in 1975 to 39.2 (1982) to 35.3 (1996) to 32.7 (2005) to 31.6 (2019) million cows. The peak of each cycle since 1982 was from 1 to 3 million cows smaller than the previous: the most recent cycles reflecting smaller drops in the peak from previous cycles.
So, what is the expectation for peak inventory during the next cycle?
Although difficult to predict because of the reasons mentioned above and the fact that the age of cow-calf operators is also advancing while fewer young people are entering the business, it is likely that the beef industry will expect modest expansion during the next and ensuing cattle cycles. It is quite possible that the U.S. beef herd will never reach beyond 29 million cows again.
If that is the expectation, then how does a cow-calf operator prepare for expansion?
At a starting point of 28 million beef cows (round figures), every percentage loss in productivity (fetal, birth, pre-weaning, pre-breeding or pre-harvest mortality) represents 280,000 calves. Therefore, if the next herd expansion is to reach 29 million cows by the next cycle peak, then the beef industry has a choice: 1) prevent 1 million heifers from entering the feedlot, 2) improve survival and breeding success by four percentage units in existing inventories of heifers destined for herd replacement, or 3) a combination thereof.
Raising more calves than needed for harvest or breeding is a necessity of the system. Building efficiency while rebuilding the herd should prevent excessive inventory swings that lead to excessive price swings. Lower cycle-over-cycle swings in beef cow inventory since the peak of 1975 are reflective of a unified commitment by the industry for greater production efficiency.
Knowing the factors and costs of raising replacement heifers provides a basis for continued efficiency improvements in the beef industry. A recent experience in developing heifers at the Haskell Agriculture Laboratory in Concord, NE provides an analysis of the process of growing replacement heifers. The analysis is represented here for educational purposes and is intended to motivate producers to consider the costs of preparing for herd expansion.
Overall, 87 heifers were considered in this analysis. Heifers were enrolled by producers from various regions. Heifers were housed in pens and fed a diet based on corn silage, alfalfa hay, wet distillers grains and a mineral supplement. Heifers were prepared for timed artificial insemination (AI) a second time if they failed to conceive after a first attempt at timed AI. The average heifer spent 220 days in the program.
A total of 71 heifers were confirmed pregnant (82%). Costs were $627 per heifer ($2.85/heifer/day) or $768 per pregnancy.
Therefore, under conditions of the program (82% pregnancy rate), if a heifer was retained in the fall of 2023 for replacement, the total cost of her first pregnancy would be $2,400 ($1,620 was the value of the heifer in the fall of 2023 and it cost $768 to achieve pregnancy).
As producers look at current prices, there may be an opportunity to retain heifers at similar prices as a year ago and expect to spend from $2,300 to $2,600 to raise a pregnant heifer. However, a thorough analysis of critical control points (energy, protein and mineral supply, water quality, winter housing, heat abatement, and gentle handling) to ensure breeding success in 2025 is in order.
If interested in retaining your own replacement heifers, the University of Nebraska has a program called the Great Plains Heifer Development Center, at the Haskell Ag Lab near Concord. This program focuses on the benefits of precision heifer development, and collecting valuable data for the producers to use If interested in the program please follow this link or contact Connor Biehler at 402-624-8030 for information about the 2025 program year.
Source : unl.edu