The ongoing decline in China’s population is emerging as a significant yet underreported factor impacting the global agricultural market, according to Ben Buckner, chief grains analyst for AgResource Co.
Speaking at the Ontario Agricultural Conference last month, Buckner warned that China’s days as the primary driver of global agricultural demand are waning as its population shrinks.
China’s population fell for the third consecutive year in 2024, marking a historic reversal after more than six decades of steady growth. Over the past two years alone, the country has lost approximately three million people, with projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasting a further decline of eight million by 2028.
“This is the No. 1 thing I want you to take away,” Buckner told the audience. “This is probably the most important thing not being reported on, especially in the ag media.”
First implemented in 1979, China’s one child policy was formally ended by the Chinese government in 2015. But whether coincidence or something else, the slowdown in China’s population only seemed to accelerate afterward, Buckner said, potentially hinting a deeper more worrisome problem for the country’s leadership.
“So, the one-child policy ends, and they are getting worse. To us, this seems like kind of a generational issue.”
As part of his presentation, Buckner displayed a chart that showcased collapsing imports of US non-fat dry milk – basically baby formula. In 2024, those imports fell by half from 2023 and were down 80% from just two years ago.
Meanwhile, China’s broader agricultural imports are declining across the board. The USDA estimates that China’s imports of key crops—corn, soybeans, and wheat—will fall to 134 million tonnes in 2024-25, a 10% drop from the previous year. Forecasts for 2025-26 project an even steeper decline to 118 million tonnes.
In dollar terms, China’s total agricultural purchases through October 2024 amounted to just $18 billion, down from $23 billion over the same period in 2023 and $29 billion for the entire calendar year.
The US, a key supplier, is feeling the impact, Buckner said, but so are other major exporters, including Brazil.
China’s broader economic slowdown compounds the issue. After peaking at over 14% in 2007, the country’s annual GDP growth has steadily declined. For 2025, growth is projected at just 4.1%, further weakening China’s ability to sustain past levels of agricultural imports.
Buckner concluded that the global agricultural sector must brace for a future without China as a dominant force in demand. The scale of lost import demand is unlikely to be fully replaced elsewhere, despite rising agricultural imports from countries like Vietnam.
“This is not just a short-term trend,” Buckner said. “China’s role in the global ag economy is fundamentally changing, and the industry must adapt.”
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