Canadian Crop Outlook - Wheat and Durum Forecast

Apr 08, 2024


Here are some insights into Canadian wheat and durum crops from Statistics Canada. 

In Canada, the 2023-24 durum production faced a significant decline due to persistent dryness in the southwest Prairies, resulting in a 30% decrease compared to the previous year. Despite lower production, crop quality remains high, with most crops graded in the top two tiers.  

However, tight carry-in stocks further constrain total supply, leading to a 37% decrease in exports. The world durum market also experiences a decrease in production and supply, tightening global stocks. 

On the other hand, Canadian wheat production (excluding durum) slightly decreased by 2% despite an increase in seeded area. The crop quality is excellent, with most of the crop grading in the top two tiers.  

However, tight carry-in stocks limit total supply, while exports witness a steady increase. Globally, wheat supply expands, driven by higher production in several countries, including Russia and Ukraine. 

Looking ahead to 2024-25, the forecast predicts a slight increase in durum production in Canada, with improved yields. However, exports are expected to remain below average levels due to increased competition.  

For wheat, the area seeded is forecasted to decline, influenced by lower prices and global supply abundance. Nonetheless, total production and supply are projected to increase slightly, with exports constrained by global market dynamics. 

While challenges persist in Canadian crop production, such as weather variability and market competition, opportunities for growth and resilience also emerge. By closely monitoring market trends and adopting sustainable farming practices, Canada aims to navigate the complexities of the agricultural landscape and secure a prosperous future for its farmers and stakeholders.