Restaurants Canada has revised its 2025 forecast downward, projecting a contraction in Canadian commercial foodservice sales due to escalating trade tensions with the United States. The updated outlook predicts a decline of 0.4% to 1.5% in 2025 and up to 1.4% in 2026, in sharp contrast to earlier growth expectations.
While a temporary GST/HST holiday gave the industry a brief lift—with January foodservice sales up 7.5% and employment reaching 1.18 million—the trade war’s ripple effects have taken hold. Canadian restaurants report plans to cut non-essential spending, raise menu prices, and delay capital investments, which could ultimately reduce demand for pork and other proteins.