For 2023-2024, the outlook incorporates the results of Statistics Canada’s (STC) November Farm Survey of crop production, which was released on December 4, 2023, and was based on a survey of approximately 27,200 farmers that was conducted from October 6 to November 12, 2023. These are the last official estimates for crop production from STC in 2023 and replace the model-based estimates that were released on September 14, 2023.
Production of all principal field crops is estimated at 89.5 million tonnes (Mt) in 2023, down 7.5% from 2022 and 2.2% below the 2018-2022 average. The decrease in production can be largely attributed to a reduction in yields due to drought conditions encountered in Western Canada, with regions in south-eastern Alberta and south-western Saskatchewan especially hard hit. Despite the challenging growing conditions, production in Western Canada fell less than expected and was higher than STC’s model-based estimates released in September, declining 10.2% compared to the previous year and 4.3% below the 2018-2022 average. In contrast, Eastern Canada received normal to above normal precipitation throughout the growing season; overall, production was marginally up by 0.8% compared to 2022.
By major crop commodity groups, all wheat production is estimated to have fallen 6.9% year-over-year to 32.0 Mt in 2023. Marginally smaller oilseed output is also expected, down 0.5 % to 25.3 Mt. Production of coarse grains is estimated to have decreased 11.0% to 27.1 Mt due to lower yields as well as a large decline in harvested area for oats. Production of pulses and special crops is projected to have declined 21.8% from 2022 to 5.1 Mt in 2023 due to both lower yields and harvested area for lentils and dry peas, the largest crops in this category.
In general, crop prices are forecast to remain relatively strong for 2023-24. The prices for most crops are forecast down year-over-year, however, the prices for durum, oats, lentils, dry beans, chickpeas, and canary seed are projected to increase. At this time, the price forecasts are subject to significant volatility due to the elevated amount of uncertainty in global markets.
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