In May, broiler meat production totaled 3.2 billion pounds, an increase of 1.4 percent from the previous year. The relatively small increase in May was chiefly the result of one fewer slaughter day compared to the previous year. The number of
birds slaughtered in May (704 million) was 1 percent lower than a year earlier, but this decline was offset by a strong increase in the average weight of birds at slaughter. In May, the average live weight was 6.11 pounds, 2.3 percent higher than the previous year. Over the first 5 months of 2015, live weight at slaughter averaged 6 pounds, 1.8 percent higher than during the same period in 2014. With the small meat production increase in May, the second-quarter production forecast was reduced by 25 million pounds to 10.05 billion. However, broiler hatchery data points to expansion in broiler production in the coming quarters. The forecast for production in the third and fourth quarters was increased by 100 million pounds. In addition, the forecast for 2016 was increased by 200 million pounds.
Over the last 5 weeks (June 5 to July 4), the average number of chicks being placed weekly for growout was 173 million, up 3 percent from the same period in 2014. The 5-week moving average of the difference between weekly chick placements this year and in the same period in 2014 has been over 3 percent higher since the beginning of May. This situation is expected to remain relatively stable during the third quarter.
Broiler cold storage holdings at the end of May totaled 707 million pounds, up 21 percent from a year earlier. While sharply higher than the previous year, broiler cold storage holdings were down 27 million pounds from the previous month, even
with expanding domestic production and falling exports. The year-over-year cold storage holdings for almost all broiler products were higher, with the lone exception of wings. Stocks of whole birds, leg quarters, and thighs were all much higher. Stocks for whole birds rose to 17.1 million pounds, up 140 percent from the previous year. Stocks of leg quarters were 166 million pounds, 40 percent higher than the previous year, but this was down 15 million pounds from the previous month, even with lower exports. Stocks of wings fell to 44.2 million pounds, down 34 percent from a year earlier. Wing stocks have consistently been below the previous year throughout the first 5 months of 2015.
During the remainder of 2015, cold storage holdings of broiler products are expected to gradually increase. Broiler meat production on a year-over-year basis is expected to be higher and exports are forecast lower, placing large amounts of broiler meat on the domestic market. However, the unexpected decline in cold storage holdings from April to May has resulted in a decline in holdings of 50 million pounds for the second and third quarters. Ending stock levels for 2015 were unchanged at 775 million pounds, an increase of 14 percent from 2014.
The strong year-over-year growth in broiler production forecast in the second half of 2015, lower exports, and higher cold storage holdings are combining to place downward pressure on wholesale prices for most broiler products. Prices for whole birds averaged $1.04 cents per pound during second-quarter 2015, 8 percent lower than a year earlier. Prices were also lower for almost all broiler meat products. The lone exception was wings, which declined in cold storage holdings and whose price rose to $1.81 per pound in the Northeast market in June, 27 percent above the yearearlier price. Prices for boneless/skinless breast meat averaged $1.47 per pound in June, 26 percent lower than the previous year, and bulk leg quarter prices fell to $0.29 per pound, down 41 percent.
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Source: USDA