Big Swing in Oat Production, Supplies, Stocks

Production, total supply, and ending stocks will rebound for most Prairie crops in 2022-23, but perhaps none so dramatically as oats. 

Agriculture Canada’s latest monthly supply-demand estimates on Friday – which reflect the Statistics Canada Sept. 7 grain stocks report as well as the Sept. 14 crop production report – pegged the total 2022-23 oat supply at a comfortable 4.98 million tonnes, up from 4.82 million in August and now 43% above the drought-impacted 2021-22 marketing year. 

With supply rising, ending stocks are seen this month at 700,000 tonnes, up 100,000 from August and 18% above the pre-2021 five-year average.  

Amid the heavier supply, the average oat price is not surprisingly predicted to fall sharply in 2022-23, dipping to $360/tonne. That is down $435 in August and well below the 2021-22 record of $565 although still historically high, supported by strong prices for other crops. 

The bigger total oat supply is primarily the result of an expected much larger crop this year, with StatsCan’s September production report putting the crop at 4.65 million tonnes, up 66% from a year earlier and 21% above the five-year average. A larger carryin from 2021-22 adds to the supply as well, as the StatsCan stocks report estimated national oat stockpiles as of July 31 at 318,000 tonnes, versus the August Ag Canada projection of 220,000.