“In 2024, we had a large decline in acreage compared to the previous year, so this year I would have expected acres to be back up,” Kelley said. “So 710,000 acres are really back up to ‘normal’ levels.”
Kelley noted that Arkansas growers were “still a long way” from the 850,000 acres that were planted in both 2021 and 2023, the most corn planted in the state since 1954.
Arkansas growers have already made an early start in corn planting, with an estimated 22 percent of planned acreage planted as of March 30, according to USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.
Scott Stiles, extension agricultural economics program associate for the Division of Agriculture, said corn’s relative price stability has likely bolstered its popularity among growers.
“Out of the major row crops, corn prices have changed relatively little over the past year,” he said.
Stiles said corn prices rose steadily from about last October through mid-February 2025. During the survey period on which Monday’s report was based, Feb. 18 — March 18, new crop corn prices fell just 1 percent from the same time last year. By comparison, soybean prices fell 11 percent, cotton fell 18 percent and rice fell 5 percent.
“The market fundamentals have been more price friendly for corn with tightening global and U.S. corn stocks,” Stiles said. “World stocks have fallen to decade lows.”
Medium-grain rice also saw increased investment in Arkansas, with acreage growing 20 percent to 140,000 acres, according to USDA. This, while acreage for long-grain rice, by far the most common variant in the state, fell 1 percent to 1.32 million acres.
Jarrod Hardke, extension rice agronomist for the Division of Agriculture, said the increase in medium-grain acres was expected, owing to seed supply issues with long-grain varieties.
“The surprising part is that long-grain rice acres are currently projected to remain similar to 2024,” Hardke said. “I expect those to actually come in lower than currently stated, which should bring total planted rice acres below 1.4 million.”
Stiles said market fundamentals for medium grain appeared friendlier going into 2025, with U.S. stocks tightening. In February, USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum put 2025 medium-grain rice prices at $6.44 per bushel, compared to $6.08 for long-grain.
Nationally, all rice acreage fell 1 percent to just under 2.9 million acres.
Soybeans
Planned acreage for Arkansas soybeans, the state’s biggest crop, fell 2 percent from 2024 to an even 3 million acres, according to USDA.
Jeremy Ross, extension soybean agronomist for the Division of Agriculture, said the USDA soybean estimates align with what he expected for 2025. And while Arkansas soybean growers have made good early planting progress, with 5 percent of forecast acreage already in the ground as of March 30, heavy spring rains may create challenges.
“We have a really good start to the planting season,” Ross said. “But I’m a little concerned with the estimates of 10 inches of rain that are in the forecast for later this week.”
The National Weather Service has posted a flood watch for nearly the entire state through April 6.
Stiles said that lower input costs, relative to other crops, likely helped limit reductions in soybean acreage in Arkansas and elsewhere in the United States. Soybean prices have also enjoyed modest support from tightening U.S. stocks, he said, but that world soybean stocks are at record highs, which will likely suppress export prices.
“Brazil is about finished harvesting a record soybean crop,” Stiles said. “Recalling the trade events of the first Trump administration, growers may be concerned that soybean prices could be negatively impacted by another trade war with China. Currently, 50 percent of U.S. soybean export sales have been to China in the 2024/25 marketing year. Mexico is the second largest export market, with a 9 percent share.
Nationally, planned soybean acreage is down 4 percent from 2024.
Cotton
Planned acreage for Arkansas cotton fell 11 percent to 580,000 acres, according to USDA.
Zachary Treadway, extension cotton and peanut agronomist for the Division of Agriculture, said the decrease in acreage fell in line with his expectations, based on conversations with constituents.
“It is just hard for our producers to make cotton pencil out in terms of return on investment, and acres had to come down some,” Treadway said. “I wouldn't be surprised to see that number move a percent or two by the time the actual numbers come in into the summer, but 580,000 seems about right.”
Stiles said that world and U.S. stocks of both cotton and rice were currently high.
“Neither crop is in need of an acreage increase in 2025,” he said. “The United States is facing stiff export competition from Asian milled rice. Mexico accounts for 45 percent of U.S. long-grain rough rice sales.
“Likewise, U.S. cotton exports are competing with large crops from Brazil and Australia,” he said. “Roughly 87 percent of U.S. cotton demand is attributed to exports. China and Mexico are consistently in the top five export markets for U.S. cotton.”
With new crop cotton prices below 70 cents, Stiles said, it was not surprising to see cotton acres decline. U.S. cotton acres are expected to be the lowest since 2015, at 9.867 million — a 12 percent decline from 2024.
Peanuts
Planned Arkansas peanut acreage remained at 45,000 acres, unchanged from 2024.
Treadway said the steady acreage was unsurprising, if mildly disappointing.
“Most, if not all, of the peanut producers also grow cotton, and I thought some of the land that was taken out of cotton would go to peanuts” he said. “I wouldn't be surprised to see that number come up a little bit, but maybe that's just wishful predicting.”
Nationally, planned peanut acres increased 8 percent in 2025, to 1.95 million acres.
Source : uada.edu