All Wheat, Durum Stocks at Multi-Decade Lows

Canadian all wheat stocks as of Dec. 31 fell to near a two-decade low, while durum stocks were at their lowest in more than 30 years.

A Statistics Canada grain stocks report on Tuesday pegged national all wheat stockpiles as of the end of December at 15.564 million tonnes, down 38% from a year earlier and the tightest since 2002 when all wheat stocks fell to 13.979 million. Durum stocks as of Dec. 31, 2021 were reported at 2.094 million tonnes, a drop of 56.4% from the previous year and a level not seen since 2.024 million in 1988. Wheat (excl durum) stocks were down by about one-third compared to a year earlier at 13.47 million tonnes, the lowest since 2007.

The tightness in Dec. 31 wheat stocks is of course due to last summer’s Prairie drought, which slashed national all wheat output by 38% to 21.65 million tonnes. Durum production fell even more sharply, down almost 60% to 2.65 million.

With a total all wheat supply of 27.582 million tonnes to begin the 2021-22 crop year, the December stocks number infers Aug. 1- Dec. 31 usage of just over 12 million tonnes, compared to 15.7 million for the same period a year earlier. Inferred Aug. 1 – Dec. 31 durum use was 1.33 million tonnes, versus 2.51 million the previous year.

Producer all wheat deliveries decreased by 26.4% to 10.7 million tonnes from a year earlier, StatsCan said, as deliveries of wheat excluding durum (-22%) and durum (-45%) fell.

Nationwide on-farm all wheat stocks as of Dec. 31, 2021 were reported at 11.23 million tonnes, down 47.2% from the previous year. Commercial stocks were up 14.2% at 4.3 million tonnes.

On-farm all wheat stocks in Saskatchewan were down 53% at 4.45 million tonnes, while on-farm durum supplies fell 68% to just 950,000 tonnes. Alberta all wheat on-farm stocks as of Dec. 31 were down 48% at 4.13 million tonnes, and durum stocks down a whopping 85% at 132,000. Manitoba on-farm all wheat stocks amounted to 2.11 million tonnes, down 34.2%.