Alberta Yield Estimates Mixed Versus StatsCan

Alberta government yield estimates for the five major crops are mixed compared to last week’s Statistics Canada forecasts. 

The province’s crop report on Friday pegged this year’s average spring wheat yield in the province at 52.8 bu/acre, down from StatsCan’s model-based estimate of 58.5 bu released Aug. 29. At 41 bu/acre, the province’s average canola yield estimate was also lower than the StatsCan projection of 44.3 bu. On the other hand, the Alberta oat yield estimate of 90 bu/acre was 4.6 bu above StatsCan, while peas were 0.8 bu above at 44.7 bu/acre. The province’s barley yield estimate of 73.2 bu/acre was generally in line with the StatsCan forecast of 73.7 bu/acre. 

Today’s crop report did not contain yield estimates for any of the other crops grown in the province. 

Overall, provincial yields are expected 12% above the five-year average and almost 8% above the 10-year average.  

The Alberta harvest has been in full swing over the past week, advancing by 17 points for major crops from a week earlier to 37% complete as of Tuesday. That is behind 45% a year earlier, but still ahead of both the five-year average of 27% and the 10-year average of 25%. Another 19% of crops were in the swath as of Tuesday, while 44% were still standing.