Ag Canada Revises New-Crop Production Estimates

Agriculture Canada has adjusted most of its new-crop production estimates from last month, although the changes appear to have more to do with acreage than with yields. 

Updated monthly supply-demand updates released Friday reflect Statistics Canada’s June 28 acreage report - as well as its May 9 quarterly stocks report, which showed national stockpiles of various crops as of March 31. But while Ag Canada did also tinker with its yield estimates, the impact of the Prairie drought remains largely uncertain. 

Still, the government did acknowledge the drought problems that have ravaged crops in some areas of Alberta and Saskatchewan, noting that the “most significant climate-related agricultural risk is increased drought severity across Western Canada.” 

For canola, Ag Canada is now projecting a 2023 crop of 18.8 million tonnes, up 400,000 from its June estimate and up from 18.17 million a year earlier. The government held its canola yield estimate steady from last month at 38 bu/acre, so all the month-over-month increase was due to the larger planted area estimate contained in the June acreage report versus StatsCan’s original planting intentions report in April.  

With a larger acreage base, Ag Canada is projecting a new-crop canola harvested area of 21.85 million acres, versus 21.32 million last month. 

But despite larger production, Ag Canada held its 2023-24 canola ending stocks estimate steady from June at 600,000 tonnes, down 50,000 from the current year, as it raised exports and crush by 200,000 tonnes each to 9 million and 9.7 million tonnes, respectively. 

In the case of barley, Ag Canada trimmed its 2023 production estimate – down to 9.22 million tonnes from 9.54 million – even as seed and harvested area were both revised slightly from June based on the StatsCan acreage report. Instead, the average expected barley yield was lowered to 63.5 bu/acre from 68 bu last month. 

Barley ending stocks for 2023-24 are now seen at 700,000 tonnes, down 100,000 from the June forecast but still near the previous year’s 730,000. 

The June acreage report slashed oat planted area from original intentions. Combined with a lower yield estimate – down to 87.1 bu/acre from 92.6 bu in June – oat production for this year is projected at 2.81 million tonnes, versus 3.64 million last month and a major 46% below the 2022 crop. Amid the smaller crop, Ag Canada hacked its 2023-24 oat ending stocks estimate all the way down to 450,000 tonnes from 1 million last month. If accurate, that would be 64% below the revised 2022-23 ending stocks level of 1.25 million but still up from the drought-impacted 2021-22 stocks of just 333,000. 

All wheat planted and harvested area was revised up from last month but a small downgrade in the expected yield means total estimated production of 35.33 million tonnes, down from the June estimate of 35.75 million but well up from 33.82 million a year earlier. 

Expected new-crop durum production was dropped to 5.69 million tonnes from 5.82 million last month, while wheat (excl durum) output was reduced to 29.63 million tonnes from 29.93 million. 

At an estimated 5.1 million tonnes, all wheat ending stocks were cut 700,000 tonnes from the June estimate but are still well above 3.54 million in 2022-23.