Ag Canada Holds Canola Supply-Demand Estimates Steady

Domestic and export demand may be running hot, but Agriculture Canada is so far avoiding the temptation to tighten its 2024-25 supply-demand estimates. 

In its monthly update Tuesday, Ag Canada held its canola numbers steady from October, with ending stocks maintained at 2.2 million tonnes, down from 2.748 million a year earlier and slightly below the five-year average of 2.26 million.  

The only change from last month was an upward revision in the average expected 2024-25 canola price, up $25 to $660/tonne, although still well below $715 a year earlier. 

Some underlying support in the canola market has come from ideas Canadian canola supplies could tighten markedly this year. Canada Grain Commission (CGC) data supports that theory, with year-to-date canola exports through Nov. 3 reported at 3.1 million tonnes, almost double the previous year and 55% above the five-year average.  

Meanwhile, domestic usage through Nov. 3 is pegged by the CGC at 2.95 million tonnes, 12% ahead of a year ago and 17% above the five-year average.  

(For 2024-25, Ag Canada is forecasting canola exports at 7.5 million tonnes, up from 6.68 million last year, and the crush at 11.5 million tonnes, an increase of roughly 500,000 from 2023-24). 

In the commentary accompanying today’s supply-demand update, Ag Canada noted its crush forecast is sensitive to the speed at which crush plants now currently under construction across Western Canada become operational. Ag Canada also hedged its bets on the export forecast, given the outcome of China’s anti-dumping investigation into Canadian canola remains unknown at this time. 

Although unchanged for now at 18.981 million tonnes, this year’s Canadian canola production estimate is also highly uncertain amid generally disappointing yields in many parts of the Prairies. Based on Alberta and Saskatchewan government yield estimates near the end of harvest, most analysts believe actual output will be lower. 

Statistics Canada is due to release its final 2024 canola production estimate on Dec. 5.