Even with the tighter total supply, Ag Canada raised its 2023-24 crush estimate by 300,000 tonnes from last month to 10 million. However, it also hacked its export forecast by 1.3 million tonnes to just 7.7 million, down from 7.94 million in 2022-23.
In its accompanying commentary, Ag Canada blamed the smaller export forecast on pressure from tight Canadian stocks and large world supplies. “The strength of Chinese import demand remains the largest source of uncertainty in the export forecast as historically, imports have fluctuated significantly from one year to the next,” Ag Canada added.
The bottom line was a much tighter 2023-24 ending stocks forecast – down 34% on the year and 60% below the five-year average - with the average expected price raised to $815/tonne from $790 in August but still down from the 2022-23 average of $857.
For wheat, Ag Canada also reduced its 2023-24 export forecast, down to 21.3 million tonnes from 23.8 million in August and 25.53 million a year earlier.
The fall is due to the Sept. 14 crop production report, which cut 2023 Canadian all wheat output to 29.83 million from 33.2 million in August and 34.33 million the previous year.
In addition to cutting exports, Ag Canada also reduced expected domestic use to 8.64 million tonnes from 9.07 million last month, putting projected 2023-24 all wheat ending stocks at 3.6 million tonnes, down just 100,000 from last month and still slightly above 3.58 million a year earlier.
Projected durum exports were cut 700,000 tonnes from last month alone to 3.3 million (versus 5.13 million in 2022-23), as production was lowered by almost 900,000 tonnes to 4.05 million. With the export cut and a larger carryin from 2022-23 durum ending stocks to offset the smaller crop, durum ending stocks for 2023-24 were left unchanged from last month at 400,000 tonnes, little changed from 397,000 a year earlier.
Source : Syngenta.ca