On Sept. 10, German officials confirmed the first case of African Swine Fever in a wild boar found near the Polish border. Given the proliferation of cases in western Poland, the announcement was not a significant surprise, but the confirmation of ASF in Germany could be devastating for the country’s pork industry, which is still dealing with disruptions caused by COVID-19.
Background on African Swine Fever
For most of the past two years, ASF has been in the spotlight following its discovery, and subsequent rapid spread, in China. AFBF’s Market Intel has covered the issue previously in several articles, but for the uninitiated a short background on ASF is helpful. ASF is a serious, highly contagious, viral disease affecting pigs. It spreads very rapidly in pig populations by direct or indirect contact. Pigs can contract the virus in a variety of ways, including transmission by ticks and direct contact between animals, as well as by contact with contaminated food, animal feed or vehicles. ASF can survive for long periods in uncooked swine products, which can facilitate its introduction into new areas. The virus is extremely hardy and can withstand extreme environmental conditions in fresh and frozen meat. The mortality rate of the virus is extremely high, and there is no vaccine commercially available or approved for use on the market.
It is very important to note that ASF does not affect humans and poses no food safety implications, particularly when it comes to the U.S. food supply. Humans cannot contract the virus by handling pork or by coming into contact with pigs, as only animals in the pig family can contract it. After being introduced into the world’s largest pork-producing and-consuming country, China, ASF spread like wildfire, decimating the country’s hog herd. It subsequently spread throughout many other southeastern Asian countries, reducing pork production and driving up animal protein prices across species.

In Germany, authorities have implemented ASF control measures, including erecting a fence around a 4 km radius of the site where the infected animal was found and combing the area for signs of other infected animals. However, samples taken from the infected animal indicate that ASF entered Germany several weeks ago, and already German officials have announced that five other infected wild boars were found in the endangered area.
Where does Germany Send its Pork?
Most of Germany’s domestic pig population is further west and south of where ASF was discovered, and with the discovery of a wild boar testing positive, there is no indication that the country’s commercial production has been impacted. However, as a result of the wild boar testing positive, many countries have begun to cut off imports from the country. Late last week, South Korea and Japan banned imports of pork from Germany, and over the weekend China announced a ban on German pork as well. China’s announcement went so far as to indicate the country would destroy any existing pork supplies that originated in Germany. These import bans and others that may follow deal a pivotal blow to the German pork industry, which has already been struggling from the impacts of COVID-19. Export markets are incredibly important to Germany, the largest pork producer in the European Union.
Last year, Germany exported nearly 40% of its pork production (excluding variety meat), a hefty amount, with the majority going to other EU countries. China, in particular, has developed into a crucial market for German pork, accounting for roughly 30% of exports from January to May 2020. Apart from its European Union neighbors, China is Germany’s largest customer. Germany’s reliance on China as a pork customer has significantly increased in recent years, with the first five months’ volume increasing from 14% in 2018 to 18% in 2019 and ultimately 30% in the first five months of 2020. Given the closure of external markets to German pork, it appears the EU could be awash in pork, especially considering Germany had been sending nearly one-third of its pork exports to China.
