In its September Crop Production report, USDA raised its U.S. soybean yield forecast for this year to 46.6 bushels per acre, which raises the 2014/15 production estimate by 97 million bushels to 3.913 billion. U.S. soybean exports for 2014/15 are forecast up this month by 25 million bushels to 1.7 billion. A higher demand for soybean meal may also raise the domestic soybean crush by 15 million bushels to 1.77 billion. Season -ending soybean stocks may surge to an 8 -year high of 475 million bushels, which led USDA to lower its 2014/15 forecast of the U.S. average farm price by 35 cents to $9.00-$11.00 per bushel.
Higher crop forecasts for the United States, Brazil, and Argentina are expected to swell global soybean stocks in 2014/15 to 90.2 million metric tons. Based on a 4.7-percent increase in area, Brazil soybean production is expected to be up 3 million tons next year to 94 million. Likewise, Argentine soybean area is expected to rise 1 percent in 2014/15, which would boost production by 1 million tons to 55 million. Declining prices are seen encouraging top importer China to import 74 million tons of soybeans in 2014/15 - up 1 million tons from last month’s forecast.
Source: USDA