2024/25 estimates show 1.971 billion bushels of wheat
The U.S. wheat production for the 2024/25 marketing year is projected at 1.971 billion bushels, representing a 9% increase from the prior year. This marks the highest output since the 2016/17 marketing year and stands in contrast to a long-standing decline in wheat production, driven largely by farmers transitioning to crops like corn and soybeans for better profitability.
In recent years, wheat acreage has started to recover, fueled by high wheat prices in the fall of 2022, prompting farmers to plant more wheat for the 2023/24 marketing year.
The hard red winter wheat class faced significant challenges due to drought conditions, which impacted the volume of harvestable wheat.
For the upcoming marketing year, despite a projected decrease in total wheat acreage, the weather outlook appears favorable, likely enhancing both the area harvested and yield in comparison to the previous season.
Production forecasts indicate increases for hard red winter, hard red spring, white, and durum wheat classes, all benefiting from improved growing conditions.
In contrast, soft red winter wheat production is anticipated to decrease by 24% compared to the previous year's exceptional harvest, yet it is still expected to surpass the five-year average. These insights are derived from the August 2024 Wheat Outlook, providing updated forecasts that reflect current agricultural trends and challenges.