“We’re probably close to 90 percent harvest on soybeans and I’d say 85 percent on corn,” he told Farms.com. “I’ve heard farmers had a dry finish in August and September and are harvesting at 7 or 8 percent moisture on both corn and soybeans.”
The upcoming November report is all about corn in Agostino’s opinion.
The September WASDE pegged the national corn yield average at 186.7 bushels per acre compared to 188.8 in August.
“Anything below 179 (bushels per acre) would be bullish on corn because no one would be expecting it,” he said.
Agostino anticipates lower national soybean yield numbers too.
The last crop report in September had soybeans at 53.5 bushels per acre, down from 53.6 in August. And USDA
“I’ve heard in soybeans that the beans within the pods are very small, so the test weight isn’t there,” Agostino said. “Anything below 52 (bushels per acre) would be considered bullish. I’ve been talking about 170 for corn and 48 for soybeans for two months.”
Prices could go higher if three things occur.
One, Agostino says, is the November WASDE.
“Another is South American weather,” he said. “Some regions are getting rain once a week instead of every other day. And the other is the U.S.-China trade deal. We’ll see how things play out but there’s a trifecta of key catalysts here to get prices higher.”
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The USDA is planning additional report releases in November:
- Milk Production (Nov. 10
- Crop Production (Nov. 14)
- Cattle on Feed (Nov. 21)
- Milk Production (Nov. 21)