US Midwest Heat Supports Corn Rally – Will the Heat Drive it Higher?

If the heat persists beyond a few days, expect more short covering rallies

On the weekly Ag Commodity Corner+ Podcast for the week of July 14 to 18, 2025, with Farms.com Risk Management’s Chief Commodity Strategist Moe Agostino the focus was on how US Midwest heat and corn pollination concerns triggered a market rally.

Corn prices rose 12 cents, and soybeans gained 28 cents, with soybean oil futures hitting new contract highs. Although prices later eased, the upward trend reflects strong market sentiment.

Bitcoin also saw a record high of $124,140, highlighting a significant week for crypto.

A key concern was the heat dome over the US Midwest, bringing 95 to 115°F temperatures. This raised worries about corn pollination, on top of corn pollination issues with tight tassel warps across Missouri, Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, and Ohio. Early planted corn faced issues with rapid growth syndrome as tightly wrapped ears are affecting pollination, though impacts seemed localized.

If the heat persists beyond a few days, experts expect more short covering rallies, potentially pushing corn prices up by 50 cents. Soybean oil futures broke resistance levels, spilling over into higher canola/soybean futures. However, canola faces a seasonal tendency to trade lower.

Soybeans remained rangebound but could retest highs if heat impacts extend into August’s pod-filling stage. Farmers are encouraged to seize selling opportunities before harvest.

In Canada, Prairie farmers face mixed crop conditions. The far south remains dry with low canola yields, while central and northern areas fare better. Rain is crucial in the coming weeks.

Trade also stirred markets, with new US tariffs on the EU and Mexico. While markets brushed off initial news, the ongoing tariff trend could influence future exports. The EU and Mexico account for 38% of US corn and soybean exports.

Crypto legislation passed in the U.S. Congress, hinting at new demand potential as retirement funds may invest in crypto.

Finally, the CFTC reported funds reducing short positions in corn, which could support prices if the weather remains hot.

Agostino concluded this could be farmers’ last key chance to market 2025 bushels before harvest.

For daily information and updates on agriculture commodity marketing and price risk management for North American farmers, producers, and agribusiness visit things; Farms.com Risk Management Website to subscribe to the program.

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