US beef declines while Australian exports surge

US beef production falls, creating opportunities for Australia to expand exports

The United States beef industry is experiencing a notable decline in production throughout 2024. US cow slaughter has decreased by 15% compared to last year, with over 650,000 fewer cows processed. This drop has contributed to a 12% reduction in lean beef production, which now stands at 1.2 million tonnes, the smallest volume since 2016.

Despite the overall decline, heavier carcase weights and increased heifer feedlot entries have softened the production fall. Total slaughter is down by 4%, but production has only dropped by 1% in 2024, with a similar 1% reduction expected in 2025.

The increased heifer feedlot entry suggests that rebuilding the breeding herd will take longer, slowing future production recovery.

The USDA forecasts that by 2025, US beef production will fall by another 4%, with exports expected to drop 13%. This gap is already being filled by Australian beef producers.

Australian exports to the US have jumped 69% so far in 2024, reaching nearly 235,000 tonnes. The US has become the largest market for Australian beef, with Australia poised to meet the growing demand as US supplies tighten.

As US production slows and Australian beef output reaches record levels, global beef markets are shifting, with Australia expanding its role in US markets.