U.S. China trade truce lifts soybean markets

Fed rate cuts boost optimism

On the Ag Commodity Corner+ Podcast by Farms.com, Risk Management experts Moe Agostino and Abhinesh Gopal, described the week of October 27 to 31, 2025, as a strong one for global markets, driven by trade and monetary developments.

Soybeans and soymeal prices surged after a U.S.–China trade truce was reached during the APEC Summit in Malaysia. While not a full trade deal, the agreement eased tensions between the world’s two largest economies. China committed to importing 12 million metric tons of soybeans by the end of the year and 25 million metric tons over the next three years (a floor), signaling renewed demand.

Other Asian nations also pledged to purchase 19 million metric tons of soybeans, making USDA’s 2025–26 export goals more achievable.

Domestically, soybean futures climbed above $11 per bushel, supported by strong biofuel demand and tight balance sheets. Limited rainfall in Brazil added further support to prices.

In contrast, cattle futures weakened slightly due to negative headlines about beef price control measures and potential imports from South America. However, analysts emphasized that U.S. beef fundamentals remain strong and long-term prices are likely to stay elevated.

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75–4%, its second cut of 2025. The Bank of Canada followed suit, lowering rates to 2.25%, while warning that trade disputes continue to challenge the Canadian economy.

Stock markets hit new record highs, led by AI-driven momentum and strong corporate earnings. Nvidia became the world’s first $5 trillion company, while Apple, Alphabet, and Meta also posted record revenues.

Overall, the week reflected renewed market optimism as easing trade tensions and supportive monetary policy buoyed global economic sentiment.