This week there are 5 key reports to watch that could have significant impacts on commodity markets the week of October 22, 2023. This Farms.com column tracks key events in commodity marketing impacting the agriculture industry! The series of article shares issues to watch the following week, issues that may have an impact on commodity prices in the coming weeks.
By Colin McNaughton
Farms.com Risk Management Intern
1.USDA’s Crop Progress report will be released as per the usual schedule on Monday, October 23rd. The recent report showed a solid increase in soybean and corn harvest, but more importantly how much further ahead soybean harvest was than corn. Corn harvest came in at 45%, 3% higher than the 5-year average. However, Soybean harvest was pinned at 62%, 10% above the 5-year average. The 6-10 day and 8–14-day precipitation outlooks show rain in the coming weeks which could delay the harvest progress. However, the moisture will benefit U.S. HRW wheat growing areas.
2. Next week's USDA Grains Inspected for Export report will be released on Monday, October 23th, the EIA ethanol data on Wednesday, October 25th, and the USDA Weekly Export Sales report on Thursday, October 26th. The Weekly Export sales report this week was strong as corn net sales came in at 881 tmt, and 1.37 mmt of soybeans, which is 30% higher than last week with Mexico as the #1 buyer of U.S. corn now representing 50% of the total sales to date. The Grains inspected for export report also showed over 2 mmt of soybeans were inspected, bringing the total inspections of the marketing year up to 5.4 mmt, up from last years 4.7 mmt at this time.
3. The U.S. drought monitor map this week showed a complete removal of the D4 drought area in Iowa, which was the worst D4 drought in state history. Iowa’s D3 drought was also reduced by 3.6%, and a 9% reduction in D2. Indiana, which saw some late season drought, saw a 25% reduction in D1 drought affected areas. When looking at winter wheat, 48% is in at least D1 drought. As mentioned above, there is rain in the forecast which will provide these areas with much needed moisture.
4. This week, Canada’s CPI data was released, showing inflation rose 3.8% in the month of September, below the 4.0% expected increase. That is also below the 4.0% we saw in August, and the first decrease in inflation we have seen since the June report. The decrease comes at an important time as next week, on Wednesday, October 25th, the Bank of Canada will make its interest rate announcement and release its monetary policy report. The slowed inflation points towards the BOC holding rates steady next week. As noted in last week's article, U.S. CPI was released, coming in above the expected 0.3% at 0.4% for the month. Year-over-year change came in at 3.7%, which was also above expectations of 3.6%.
<5>5. Next week there are a couple monthly reports from the USDA, including the Cold storage report and the Livestock and Meat Domestic Data. Total red meat supplies in freezers in September were up 1% from August, but down 15% from last year. Those numbers include an 18% reduction in total pounds of beef, and a 13% reduction in pork.
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