Top 5 key market movers to watch the week of July 16th 2023

This week there are 5 key reports to watch that could have significant impacts on commodity markets the week of July 16, 2023. This Farms.com column tracks key events in commodity marketing impacting the agriculture industry! The series of article shares issues to watch the following week, issues that may have an impact on commodity prices in the coming weeks.

By Colin McNaughton
Farms.com Risk Management Intern

1. The weekly USDA crop progress report will be released as per usual on Monday, July 17th. The latest crop progress report showed a slight improvement in the subsoil moisture levels across the U.S., as short to very short levels now sit at 44%, down 4% from the prior week. Illinois saw a significant 12% decrease in short to very short levels which now sits at 55%. As well, crop conditions improved slightly for soybeans but were better than expected on corn look for conditions to remain steady vs. last week but the Northwestern Plains from ND to MN to WS keep missing out on the rains.

2. Next week we have the USDA weekly export sales on Thursday, July 20th, EIA ethanol data on Wednesday, July 19th, and the USDA grains inspected for export report on Monday, July 17th. The recent grains inspected for export was week and showed no continued momentum from the prior report which showed strong numbers. Corn came in at 341,000 mt inspected, down from 675,000 mt the week prior and 934,000 mt one year ago. It was not all bad as wheat saw a jump from 342,000 mt up to 419,000 mt, which is up significantly from last years 310,000 mt.

3. The latest U.S. drought monitor was worse than expected given recent rains, and the state of IA, MN and WS remain 100% ij a Do-D$ drought! Wisconsin also saw a large increase in their D2 and D3 affected areas. D2 coverage went from 27.36% to 43.65%, and D3 coverage went from 2.74% up to 10.33%! Conditions in Minnesota deteriorated as well, now 100% affected by drought. D1 conditions rose by 7% and D2 conditions up 3%. This news is providing some underlying price strength and offsetting what was a bearish USDA July crop report yesterday vs. expectations.

4.The AAFC typically releases their Outlook for Canadian principle field crops report in the third week of the month, (similar to a monthly USDA crop report) so we can expect to see the report on Friday of next week. The recent report showed very similar numbers to the prior year, as 28 million hectares of grains and oil seeds were planted with a yield of 3.29 tonnes per hectare. With a looming and no timely rains over the next 2-weeks it is expected that AAFC will lower grain and yield production for Western Canada and provide further underlying support for higher prices in canola and wheat. This could be a repeat of the 2021 drought.

5. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics issues its CPI for June which showed a 3 percent rise year over year. On Tuesday, July 18th, Stats Canada will release the CPI data for the month of June. The May CPI came in at an increase of 3.4% year over year, down from April’s 4.4%. After the U.S inflation was just 3% for the month of June, there are hopes that this month’s number can continue its downward trend. The Bank of Canada just raised interest rates to 5% a 22 year high this week as they try and fight inflation and a hot labor and Canadian economy, but the next US Fed rate announcement will not be made until July 26

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