And, to be upfront, this is a writer extrapolation based on the facts and figures as they stand as of the end of November 2025.
2025 Ontario Harvest Status
Soybeans: Harvest began in mid-September and accelerated under warm, dry skies. By late October, about 90 percent of the crop was off the field, with the remainder completed in early November.
Corn: Grain corn harvest lagged behind soybeans, starting in late September. Most regions aimed for completion by mid- to late November, though some eastern and northern fields may push into December due to uneven maturity and frost damage.
Winter Wheat: Planting followed the soybean harvest closely. Dry fall conditions allowed strong progress, and most intended acres were seeded by late October.
Ontario’s 2025 summer drought created extreme variability in corn yields—even within the same field.
Southwestern Ontario managed better results, while central and eastern regions saw severe stress, forcing some growers to abandon acres.
Soybeans benefited from the dry-down, and wheat planting conditions were ideal.
Estimates and Predictions
As of November 30, 2025, the 2025 Ontario production estimates are:
Corn: 8.5–9.0 million metric tonnes (MMT), down sharply from 9.6 MMT in 2024.
Soybeans: ~4.3 MMT, slightly above last year’s 4.2 MMT.
Wheat: ~2.0–2.2 MMT, holding steady.
However, let’s be daring and look ahead to 2026 and see what’s in the forecast. Well, despite 2025’s setbacks, the outlook for 2026 is optimistic:
Corn is projected to rebound to ~9.90 MMT. Why? Historical patterns indicate above-trend yields following drought years, which are further supported by expanded acreage and the adoption of drought-tolerant hybrids.
Soybeans are expected to climb to ~4.46 MMT, driven by steady acreage growth, improved genetics, and strong global demand for protein meal and oil.
Wheat is forecast to remain stable at ~2.20 MMT.
Yield Forecast?! What About the Weather Forecast?
While the above forecasts follow established trends, they also assume normal conditions.
There’s that naughty word: assume.
Having said that, experts have cautioned that Ontario may be entering a period of greater climate volatility.
Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) warns that Ontario is projected to experience more frequent and intense droughts during warm seasons, and historical analysis shows multi-year droughts have occurred before, causing significant agricultural losses.
The ECCC is a federal government department responsible for: environmental protection, developing policies and regulations to protect air, water, and soil quality; climate change action, leading the country’s climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies, including greenhouse gas reduction targets; weather and meteorology, operating the national weather service, providing forecasts, warnings, and climate data; conservation and biodiversity managing wildlife protection, species at risk programs, and habitat conservation; and scientific research, conducting studies on climate trends, environmental health, and atmospheric science.
The ECCC plays a key role in agriculture planning by publishing climate outlooks, drought monitoring, and long-term projections that farmers and policymakers use to anticipate risks.
Dr. Al Mussell is an agricultural economist who is the Research Lead and founder of Agri-Food Economic Systems, an independent economic research organization focused on agriculture and food policy.
At the 2025 Southwest Agriculture Conference held in January 2025 at the Ridgetown Campus of the University of Guelph, he pointed out that Ontario had not yet seen a prolonged drought cycle recently, but that data suggested future droughts may become more frequent—even if shorter-lived. He added that farmers should prepare for variability rather than assume a quick return to stable patterns.
Data suggest a persistent drought risk and above-normal temperatures combined with uneven precipitation, all of which could limit soil moisture recharge and stress crops during critical growth stages.
Studies show that weather swings explain 45 percent of corn yield variability, 32 percent for soybeans, and 26 percent for wheat in Ontario. If dry conditions persist into 2026, corn’s rebound may fall short, and soybean gains could flatten.
In case you were wondering about what else besides weather affects yield variability, a friendly reminder that you already know what does:
- Soil characteristics such as texture and organic matter, as well as drainage;
- management practices such as planting date, seeding rate, and row spacing, as well as fertilizer timing and rate;
- Pest and disease pressure from European corn borer, rootworm, and fungal diseases like Gibberella ear rot (corn), soybean cyst nematode, white mould, and sudden death syndrome (soybeans), and (wheat) fusarium head blight and rust diseases;
- Genetics: hybrid or variety selection influences drought tolerance, disease resistance, and maturity. Also, short-season vs. full-season hybrids can affect yield stability under stress.
- Technology adoption: precision agriculture tools (variable-rate seeding, nutrient mapping) reduce variability. As well, a lack of adoption can widen yield gaps between farms.
- Economic and market factors: yeah… input cost constraints may lead to reduced fertilizer or crop protection use. Or crop rotation decisions driven by commodity prices can affect soil health and yield potential.
Implications for Ontario Farmers
Without a doubt, adaptation is key. If possible, invest in drought-tolerant hybrids, soil moisture conservation, and water management.
To alleviate risk management concerns, tools like production insurance and AgriStability will play a bigger role in buffering income shocks.
And let’s not forget about NOT putting all your proverbial eggs in one basket. Diversification, i.e., crop rotation and flexible planting strategies, can help spread risk.
Ontario’s grain sector is resilient, but resilience alone won’t guarantee recovery.
Weather volatility has always been the greatest factor against every farmer since the dawn of the farming industry.
It remains the single biggest risk to the 2026 outlook here in Ontario, but farmers who plan for variability will be best positioned to thrive.