Wet Start to 2024 Planting Season Means Lower Corn Yield
This week there are 5 key reports to watch that could have significant impacts on commodity markets the week of June 9th, 2024. This Farms.com column tracks key events in commodity marketing impacting the agriculture industry! The series of article shares issues to watch the following week, issues that may have an impact on commodity prices in the coming weeks.
By Devin Lashley
Farms.com Risk Management Intern
1.The June WASDE Report will be released on Wednesday June 12th. The USDA is known to slow walk it, so will they drop the U.S. corn yield after a very wet start to the 2024 planting season.
Most years the trendline yield at 181 bpa will come in unchanged, but 2024 has been just as wet 2019 and the USDA surprised that year with a 10 bpa yield drop. A sub 177 U.S. corn yield takes ending stocks below 1.7 billion vs. current USDA forecast at 2.1 billion.
A friendly USDA is needed to get funds to short cover and provide farmers a better chance at selling bushels at higher prices. South American corn and soybean and Russian wheat production will also be in focus.
2. The U.S. Crop Progress Report will be released Monday June 10th and will likely show that the 2024 planting season is coming close to being completed, but with the wet weather through mid-June it could take another week to 2 weeks to complete.
The first U.S. soybean crop conditions report will be released with the 5-year average at 64.6 percent good-excellent but the last 20 percent will need to be planted and not all of the soybeans would have emerged yet.
3. The U.S. CPI/PPI Data will be released Wednesday June 12th and Thursday June 13th respectively. A lower-than-expected number due to falling crude oil prices could hint of a U.S. Fed interest rate cut sooner than markets are expecting in September of 2024.
4. The next U.S. Fed Reserve Board Meeting will be held on Tuesday and Wednesday June 11th and 12th and will likely not result in any interest rate cuts. Any change in the narrative will be key to stocks, 10-year yield and the U.S. dollar Index.
Recently rate cuts seen from the European central bank and the Band of Canada have spiked hope of the U.S. following suit. That being said, falling crude oil prices could be causing inflation to fall, and so could the Federal Reserve cut earlier? Perhaps as soon as the July 31st meeting?
5. The U.S. Drought Monitor will be released Thursday June 13th and will likely show little development in droughts across the Midwest and southern winter wheat growing regions. Lately storms and intense rains have battered major growing regions reducing droughts to almost minimal levels, however forecasted mixes of light rain and sunshine will likely only reduce droughts slightly across major growing regions.
For daily information and updates on agriculture commodity marketing and price risk management for North American farmers, producers, and agribusiness visit the Farms.com Risk Management Website to subscribe to the program.