Market Movers to Watch for the Week of July 8th, 2024

This week there are five key reports to watch that could have significant impacts on commodity markets the week of July 8th, 2024.  This Farms.com column tracks key events in commodity marketing impacting the agriculture industry! The series of article shares issues to watch the following week, issues that may have an impact on commodity prices in the coming weeks.

By Devin Lashley
Farms.com Risk Management Intern

1. The USDA WASDE Report comes out Friday, July 12^th and might give some hope to farmers as U.S. corn yields may come down, but the USDA may not have enough information to change the yield either way as “rain makes grain.”

If the USDA lowers the yield by 4 bushels, production could fall by 366 million bushels and offset the higher acres and production of 200 million bushels from the June Acreage report. The USDA could also increase 23/24 usage or corn demand to offset the higher stocks from the June 1 quarterly grain stocks report.

2. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data comes out Thursday, July 11th and Friday, July 12th respectively and will likely show a continued decline in inflation. If so, it would increase the chances of the first interest rate cut in September that currently sit at 66.5 percent according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

3. The USDA Crop Progress Report comes out Monday, July 8th and should continue to report lower crop conditions as the reports start to take into account the flooding in the North/Central U.S. with poor to very poor conditions rising.

4. As per previous weeks, farmers need to keep an eye on the weather in Russia, as Southern Russia and eastern Ukraine continue to experience prolonged extreme heat, with temperatures in the low 100s Fahrenheit. Southern Russia, responsible for 47 percent of the country's corn, 40 percent of its wheat, and 32 percent of its sunflower production, is at risk. This dry weather pattern could see the worst start to the 2025 winter wheat planting season in Russia in August.

5. The USDA Drought Monitor comes out Thursday, July 11th and will likely show a mild reduction of droughts in the Midwest due to rainfall that has pretty much covered a good chunk of growing regions. As well as likely a possible mild expansion of droughts along the southern growing regions as heavy heat has been settling over the area.

For daily information and updates on agriculture commodity marketing and price risk management for North American farmers, producers, and agribusiness visit the Farms.com Risk Management Website to subscribe to the program.