Forecast decline in US soybean production

Lower yields reduce US and global soybean forecasts

The recent Crop Production report, the USDA has adjusted the US soybean yield for the 2024/25 season downward to 51.7 bushels per acre, a decrease from the previous forecast of 53.1 bushels per acre.

This reduction translates to a lower overall production estimate of 4.5 billion bushels, a cut of 120.7 million bushels from earlier projections.

This lowered yield expectation has several repercussions for the soybean market. Domestic soybean crush figures are revised down to 2.4 billion bushels, and soybean exports are now expected to be 1.8 billion bushels, reflecting the impact of decreased production and current sales figures.

The season-average price for soybeans in the US remains unchanged at $10.80 per bushel despite these adjustments.

Internationally, the forecast for global soybean production has been revised downward to 425.4 million metric tons, a decrease influenced by reduced output in the US and India.

Global soybean trade is looking up, thanks to increased exports from Brazil, Canada, and Benin, which help offset the reduction in US exports.

While the global soybean crush is anticipated to decrease slightly, this is somewhat balanced by higher crushing volumes in countries like Pakistan. 

Ending stocks globally for soybeans are projected at 131.7 million metric tons for the 2024/25 marketing year, down by 2.9 million metric tons from the previous forecast but still above the prior year, pointing to an evolving but still robust global supply chain.