Inflation slows but high costs and interest rates strain farm finances
Recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows inflation is cooling. Even so, America’s farmers and ranchers continue to feel financial pressure. According to Bernt Nelson, an economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation, this squeeze has persisted for several years.
USDA’s price indexes help explain why. For five years, the index measuring prices paid by crop producers—for supplies, repairs, and other inputs—has remained above the index for prices received for crops. Since 2023, the gap between what farmers pay and what they earn has widened further. In simple terms, costs are rising faster than revenues, which narrows already thin margins.
Lower commodity prices add another challenge. When crop checks shrink, many producers rely more on operating loans to cover seed, fertilizer, fuel, maintenance, and rent. At the same time, interest rates have climbed. Nelson notes this means some farms face losses for a third straight year. Higher credit use, combined with elevated rates, pushes a larger share of income toward interest payments, weakening cash flow and balance sheets.
Attention now turns to the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. Nelson outlines the trade-offs. Keeping rates where they are could help prevent inflation from heating up again, but it would also keep borrowing costs high for farm families. Cutting rates would make credit less expensive and slow the interest-to-income ratio, easing pressure on operating loans and term debt. However, a rate cut could risk renewed inflation.