Biofuel Mandate Sparks Grain Rally

Markets have a positive outlook on oilseeds, pork, and crude oil

On the weekly Ag Commodity Corner+ podcast by Farms.com Risk Management Chief Commodity Strategist Moe Agostino and Commodity Strategist Abhinesh Gopal, the team agreed and discussed how the markets moved positively last week (June 9 to 13), led by gains in oilseeds, pork, and crude oil.

The bullish momentum was supported by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s announcement of its renewable fuel volume obligations. The 2026 and 2027 mandates for biomass-based diesel were set at 5.61 and 5.86 billion gallons respectively exceeding industry expectations and sparking optimism across vegetable oil markets.

Canola rose over $20 to new contract highs for July, boosted by Western Canada’s worsening drought. Soybeans and spring wheat tagged along higher for the rider higher.

USDA’s June crop report contributed to the rally by raising U.S. corn export estimates and lowering old crop ending stocks. Wheat exports are up 22% for the 2025/26 season. However, wheat ending stocks remain high, and South American numbers were left unchanged.

Meanwhile, pork cutout values jumped above $118, pushing hog futures higher. July hogs are up more than 25% since mid-April, supported by rising consumer demand and substitution from higher beef prices. A summer high target of $122–123 is now more likely.

Crude oil prices spiked due to escalating Middle East tensions, adding further bullish sentiment.

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