Beef Prices Surge as Supplies Decline Globally

Trade Tensions And Disease Add Pressure To Beef Supply Chains

In the first half of 2025, global cattle prices rose sharply due to tightening supplies and shifting trade policies. Rabobank’s RaboResearch report highlights concerns about market instability and long-term disruptions.

With new U.S. trade policies introduced this year, beef trade has become more expensive. While tariffs implemented in April only affect baseline rates, further escalation—especially involving China and Europe—could alter global trade flows.

“Beef isn’t being singled out as a targeted commodity, and most major exporters are only facing baseline tariffs,” explains Gidley-Baird. “So early indications suggest that competitive positions will be maintained, albeit with added costs to the system.”

Cattle production is declining in key markets. The global beef supply is forecasted to shrink by 2% this year.

The largest cuts are expected in Brazil and New Zealand. Other regions like the U.S., China, and Europe also show reduced output, with only Australia seeing a modest increase.

Health issues are worsening supply problems. In Europe and the UK, bluetongue disease continues to reduce herd size. The U.S. has restricted cattle imports from Mexico due to screwworm outbreaks.

Europe’s cattle prices rose strongly in Q1, now matching the upward trend in North America. Reports also show Chinese importers are turning to alternative suppliers in Australia and South America due to rising U.S. beef prices.

Rabobank warns that the fast pace of trade negotiations, coupled with disease challenges, could reshape global beef supply chains in the months ahead.

“While tariffs may have grabbed headlines and caused headaches, the real story will be the implications of shifting global trade dynamics,” warns Gidley-Baird.

Ongoing monitoring of both trade talks and cattle health conditions will be essential to maintaining stable supply and pricing globally.