Critical TX Drought Forecast May Alter Planting Decisions

Apr 25, 2018
By Kay Ledbetter
 
The Texas High Plains is under extreme drought and, if current conditions continue, producers need to make important decisions for summer crops, said Dr. Jourdan Bell, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service agronomist in Amarillo.
 
“The current U.S. Drought Monitor is reporting we are in a Stage 4 drought,” Bell said. “With that, many producers are having to make critical management considerations as they are approaching summer planting season.”
 
Fortunately, the region’s extended precipitation forecast is improving, she said. The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center is now predicting the region will have equal chances of above or below average precipitation.
 
“What does that mean for a producer?” asked Bell. “Well hopefully it will not be as dry as previously predicted, but we still do not have a positive forecast. Unfortunately, temperatures are still projected to be above average, and, because temperatures are a key driver in crop water use, we are still at risk for crop stress under dryland and limited irrigation.”
 
With summer planting, it is important to know how much moisture is in the soil profile, “because that is our bucket,” Bell said. “With that, it’s also important to know what crops will be planted and what is their rooting depth. That will help us determine how much subsoil moisture we have and how far it will carry a crop through the growing season – especially if we don’t receive timely moisture.”
 
Many producers are having to pre-irrigate so they can have sufficient moisture in the seed zone to germinate summer crops, she said. Under dryland situations, producers are having to decide if they are going to postpone planting.
 
“Our current forecast is actually calling for precipitation. If we do get rain, many producers are evaluating how soon they will plant dryland acreage,” Bell said. “But even with a precipitation event, it will depend on the amount of rain we receive and the rate it falls to determine the effectiveness of the precipitation event. One rain is not going to break the drought situation we are in.”
 
The Texas High Plains is dependent on winter precipitation in the form of snowfall to build up soil moisture during the fallow period, she said. Across the region, negligible snow fell this winter, and rainfall has been anywhere from less than a tenth of an inch to about 3/10s of an inch for the entire winter.
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